- Russian foreign minister says war would cause ‘suffering across the world’
- Iran says neighbours in ‘dangerous position’ if they ally to U.S.
- ‘Iran would go guerilla in war with U.S.,’ says Pentagon-linked report
By Lee Moran
Last updated at 5:07 PM on 19th January 2012
Russia has warned of a ‘very big war’ causing suffering across the world if Western countries encourage anti-government uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa.
Foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said Western meddling would lead to ‘a very big war that will cause suffering not only to countries in the region, but also to states far beyond its boundaries’, the New York Times reported.
It came as Iran’s foreign minister warned its Arab neighbours not to put themselves in a ‘dangerous position’ by allying themselves too closely with the U.S. in the escalating row over Tehran’s nuclear activity.
Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov (left) warned of a ‘very big war’ if Western countries meddled in the Middle East, as Iran’s foreign minister Ali Akbar Salehi (right) told Arab neighbours not to cosy up to the U.S.
Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, used for a third of the world’s seaborne oil trade, if pending Western moves to ban Iranian crude exports cripple its lifeblood energy sector.
A ‘seriously worried’ Lavrov spoke yesterday at his annual press conference, where he said a military attack on Iran would trigger a ‘chain reaction’ to destabilise the world.
New sanctions against Tehran over its disputed nuclear programme would also ‘stifle’ the Iranian economy and hurt its people, he warned.
He added: ‘The consequences will be extremely grave. It’s not going to be an easy walk. It will trigger a chain reaction and I don’t know where it will stop.’
Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi echoed the fears during a visit to Turkey today where he said: ‘We want peace and tranquillity in the region.
‘But some of the countries in our region, they want to direct other countries 12,000 miles away from this region. I am calling to all countries in the region, please don’t let yourselves be dragged into a dangerous position.’
Warning: U.S. President Barack Obama (left) is reported to have written to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (right) about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz
The remarks were an apparent reference to the alliance of Iran’s Arab neighbours with the U.S., which has a huge fleet in the Gulf and says it will keep the waterway open.
Salehi added that the U.S. should make clear that it was open for negotiations with Tehran without conditions.
‘IRAN WOULD TURN TO GUERILLA TACTICS’ IN EVENT OF WAR
Iran would use ‘advanced technology’ and ‘guerilla tactics’ in any battle against the U.S. military, a report has revealed.
Before that, Iran would first lean hard on weaker Middle Eastern nations to convince those states to deny Washington access to bases on their soil, it states.
It also predicts Iranian ballistic missile launches on Gulf cities in an attempt to convince other nations to resist providing support to an American military operation.
And it forecasts efforts by Tehran to use Shiite Muslim ‘proxy groups’ to attack U.S. allies in the region.
Similar groups plagued the U.S.-led war effort in Iraq for years, and some officials and experts said they acted with Tehran’s backing.
Iran also could use new weapons, like advanced ballistic missiles, to attack U.S. bases and other forces positioned around the Persian Gulf.
Mark Gunzinger, an analyst at the Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington, which has ties to the Pentagon, wrote the report.
He referred to a letter Iran says it received from U.S. President Barack Obama about the situation in the Straight of Hormuz, the contents of which have not been made public.
He said: ‘Mr Obama sent a letter to Iranian officials, but America has to make clear that it has good intentions and should express that it’s ready for talks without conditions.
‘Out in the open they show their muscles but behind the curtains they plead to us to sit down and talk.
‘America has to pursue a safe and honest strategy so we can get the notion that America this time is serious and ready.’
The U.S., like other Western countries, says it is prepared to talk to Iran but only if Tehran agrees to discuss halting its enrichment of uranium.
Western officials say Iran has been asking for talks ‘without conditions’ as a stalling tactic while refusing to put its nuclear programme on the table.
With EU foreign ministers preparing to approve a phased ban on imports of Iranian oil at a meeting on January 23, Salehi said yesterday that his country was in touch with world powers to reopen talks frozen for a year.
Washington and the EU have denied this, saying they are still waiting for Iran to show it wanted serious negotiations addressing fears that it trying to master ways to build atom bombs behind the facade of a civilian nuclear energy programme.
In addition to an embargo on Iran’s economically vital oil exports, EU diplomats said member governments had agreed in principle to freeze assets of Iran’s central bank, but had yet to agree how to protect non-oil trade from sanctions.
Iranian politicians said Obama had expressed readiness to negotiate in a letter to Iran’s clerical supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
‘In this letter it was said that closing the Strait of Hormuz is our (U.S.) ‘red line’ and also asked for direct negotiations,’ the semi-official Fars news agency quoted lawmaker Ali Mottahari as saying.
‘IT’S MY DUTY TO WARN THE WORLD ABOUT IRAN’S NUCLEAR ACTIVITIES’
The chief of the UN’s nuclear watchdog said it was his duty to warn the world about Iran’s suspected development of nuclear weapons.
The comments from Yukiya Amano, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, maintained pressure on Tehran ahead of rare talks between Iran and the agency later this month.
He made clear in an interview with Financial Times Deutschland that the UN body would press for full co-operation in meetings with Iranian officials in Tehran.
He said: ‘What we know suggests the development of nuclear weapons. We want to check over everything that could have a military dimension.’
He also said Iran had so far failed to clarify allegations of possible military links to its nuclear programme.
An IAEA delegation is expected to seek explanations for intelligence indicating Iran has engaged in research and development relevant for nuclear weapons.
Washington denied there were any new discussions under way about resuming talks with Iran, but declined to comment on whether Obama had written to Khamenei.
‘There are no current talks about talks,’ State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said yesterday.
She added: ‘What we are doing, as we have said, is making clear to the Iranians that if they are serious about coming back to a conversation, where they talk openly about their nuclear programme, and if they are prepared to come clean with the international community, that we are open to that.’
The die was cast for international oil sanctions against Iran when Obama signed legislation on December 31 that would freeze out any institution dealing with Iran’s central bank, making it impossible for most countries to buy Iranian oil.
Similar measures are expected from Europe this month.
One EU diplomat said yesterday: ‘On the central bank, things have been moving in the right direction in the last hours. There is now a wide agreement on the principle. Discussions continue on the details.’
The U.S. State Department denial about talks was echoed by a spokesman for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, who represents the six world powers trying to engage with Iran.
The spokesman said: ‘There are no negotiations under way on new talks. We are still waiting for Iran to respond to the substantive proposals the High Representative (Ashton) made in her letter from October.’
Ashton underlined that talks must focus on Iran’s underground uranium enrichment activity, whereas Tehran has wanted to discuss only broader security issues up to now.
Tehran denies wanting nuclear bombs, saying its enrichment work is for power generation and medical applications.
But a U.N. nuclear watchdog report in November lent weight to concerns that Iran has worked on designing a nuclear weapon, and Tehran is shifting enrichment to an underground bunker in a mountain fortified against air attack.
Israel, which is believed to have the Middle East’s only nuclear arsenal but sees Iran’s nuclear ambitions as a mortal threat, and the United States have not ruled out military action as a last resort to prevent an atomic ‘breakout’ by Tehran.
However, Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak said on Wednesday that any decision about an Israeli assault on Iran was ‘very far off’.
British Foreign Secretary William Hague said Iran had to be ready for serious negotiations.
He told a new conference in Brazil: ‘It is significant that when we are discussing additional sanctions in the European Union an offer of negotiations emerges from Iran.
‘We will not be deterred from imposing additional sanctions simply by the suggestion there may be negotiations. We want to see actual negotiations.’
The last talks between Iran and the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council – the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China – along with Germany stalled in Istanbul a year ago, with the parties unable to agree even on an agenda.
The six countries have also failed to agree on a common line in their relations with Iran.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao defended his country’s extensive oil trade with Iran against Western sanctions pressure in comments published today. Even so, he said Beijing firmly opposes any efforts by Tehran to acquire nuclear weapons.